I seldom take the time to look back, but today I can't help it; I'm mired in a reflective mood. Peering out my second-story office window, I see at least 30 Canadian Geese blocking the drive to our building, taking a leisurely afternoon stroll. Cars slow down and weave their way around the geese, who have adapted thoroughly to suburban life.

Like the geese, I've decided to take a leisurely stroll. Reflecting back over eight years here at T&D World, I realize we've hit some topics dead on, we've missed badly on some and we've yet to come to grips with others.

Head On

We expected information technologies to have a major impact on T&D operations. In fact, we routinely revised our editorial calendars to fully cover emerging IT innovations. Just think back on what we've seen: mobile field computing, consolidated call centers, distribution and substation automation, sophisticated outage management systems, helicopter laser mapping and automated meter reading. We are now integrating databases rapidly. IT has progressed rapidly as our highly technical industry looks for ways to control costs and improve service.

Missed Badly

Never, in my wildest imagination, could I have imagined that electricity would sell for $1000/MWh. For some reason, I thought regulators and legislators would come to their senses before the growth rate collided with the shrinking reserve margin. I was wrong. Instead, tremendous price spikes occurred in various regions of the country. White papers tell me if a region has a 20% capacity margin in generation, then a robust competitive market will work. But who wants to build the excess capacity so prices will come down?

Warp Speed

I'm amazed at the speed independent generators can build gas-fired generation and connect to the grid. Siting gas-fired generation is not nearly the problem I thought it would be, partly because engineering and consulting companies have responded quickly to assist in the design, siting and construction of associated substations, lines and switching stations. Again, just amazing.

Superconductivity also moved faster than I anticipated. Early entrants had more staying power than I expected. Superconductors now are providing grid support, while superconducting cables feed industrial facilities. Soon we will see superconducting transformers, motors and current limiters. At least two U.S. utilities are involved in projects to put superconducting cables down city streets. This is neat stuff.

Slow Motion

I thought we'd see more new transmission. Of course, the difficulty still persists in obtaining right-of-way. But I truly thought price spikes and outages would result in such public howling that regulators would be forced into action. In fact, that's exactly what happened in Wisconsin; however, new transmission in California and portions of New York remains mired in red tape and community opposition. Is it possible we will be reduced to relying on the federal government to force construction of new transmission?

In 1997, I wrote an editorial entitled, “What's Next — Independent Transmission Companies?” I caught a little flack for that one, but here we are with incredibly big news. In July 2001, independent transmission company Trans-Elect Inc. (Washington, D.C., U.S.) put together a consortium to buy the electrical transmission business of utility TransAlta (Alberta, Canada). Recently, Trans-Elect and associated partners signed an agreement with Consumers Energy (Dearborn, Michigan, U.S.) to buy its high-voltage electric transmission system, the first outright sale of a U.S.-based transmission system to an independent transmission company.

Wrong Gear

Distributed generation (DG) has been way overhyped. In fact, a competing trade journal predicted DG would spell the end of the grid. Get real! We will see plenty of DG on both the utility and customer side of the meter, and that is fine. All customers should have choices. Wind turbines, microturbines, diesel generators, fuel cells — even solar — all have their place. But we will continue to rely on coal-fired and nuclear central stations. In fact, we've seen investment in the grid go up, not down. Oh, pundits, where are you now?

Exiting Memory Lane

As I put the finishing touches on this editorial, I notice it's pitch dark outside. Four hours have flown by since the geese first caught my attention. I'm sure they are back at their pond a few blocks away. Looks like it is time for me to roost, too.