Expect to see an increasingly high penetration of distributed energy resources. These resources would include demand response, energy storage, distributed generation, renewable energy and pluggable/plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Carbon taxes or caps, higher oil and natural gas prices, worries over oil availability and increased fuel switching will increase the penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) into our T&D networks and energy market operations, requiring us to develop a different understanding of how we deliver power.

We are destined to experience more volatile load on the grid, combined with drastically increased iterations with consumers. In the future, the grid has to be smart enough to adapt to what consumers want, when they want it; to signal to them changes in availability and process so they can decide how to react in a way that works for the grid and everyone else; and to adapt to failures in the grid itself.

Rather than today's one-way model of power flowing from large regional generators through basic wires to customers, it is likely that the grid will become a “power plexus” — think of a network such as a circulatory or nervous system — that is capable of moving power from any source to any destination and sensing the complex interactions between its “nodes.” This has deep implications for the way the grid is designed, engineered and operated, and will require changes in the technologies and methods used for protection, control and operations.

Advances in monitoring and communications technology — especially communication that is ubiquitous, omnipresent and itself a source of monitoring information — will make it possible to think about smart grid differently, especially with regard to condition assessment and diagnosis. Consider, in particular, broadband over power line (BPL), a technology that's been around the industry for a while. Because BPL uses the radio-frequency characteristics of the grid itself, it can provide not only embedded high-performance communications everywhere, but also diagnosis everywhere.

Related to this “communications everywhere” is the next generation of inexpensive sensors and technologies such as dynamic radio-frequency identification (RFID) that could also lead to “sensors everywhere.” And two-way, high-speed communications everywhere, based on Internet protocols and advanced network management techniques, can lead to self-configuring, localized control systems where every intelligent device is able to access newly available monitoring and diagnosis as it becomes available.

Under the power plexus paradigm we see that it becomes possible to harness and convert data beyond envisioned grid intelligence. Detecting problems anywhere or predicting equipment failures on the secondary and primary systems opens the door to radically changed maintenance practices, cost reductions and performance improvements. The data also gives life to a new generation of smart apparatus. Just as temperature sensors based on RFIDs are demonstrable today, it is not hard to conceive that semiconductor-based ultrasound sensors linked with dynamic RFID technology also will be practical and useful.

The technology risk facing T&D utilities is greater today than it has been at any time since the Edison-Westinghouse struggle over the primacy of dc or ac systems. Smart-grid benefits will be dramatically impacted by a new generation of widgets on the horizon. These devices collectively pose a risk for major smart-grid or even advanced metering infrastructure deployments that embrace yesterday's, and even today's, paradigm.

The high penetration of DER will change the grid. The utility-consumer interaction will occur in ways that cannot be foreseen. Even simple use cases reveal complexities and needs for flexibilities well beyond conventional thinking. DER will best flourish in an environment where functionality and technology is subject to open, multi-lateral development and where consumers are not locked into particular choices for long terms. The advantage goes to communications schemes that can integrate the public Internet and third-party smart device controllers and which can flexibly reach beyond the meter to DER resources.

Unless we accept a new paradigm for the smart grid, today's initiatives will be technologically and functionally obsolete well before typical utility depreciation and recovery schedules might reflect. Some important smart-grid value streams can be harvested only if the communications technology is ubiquitous and has very low incremental cost for added touch points to the grid.

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Ralph Masiello is senior vice president of energy systems consulting and a corporate innovation manager for KEMA. ralph.masiello@kema.com