Despite generator retirements and increasing demand, PJM Interconnection expects to meet summer electricity demand in 2024.
Tighter reserves are expected to result in the use of demand response or additional emergency procedures under scenarios involving extreme heat combined with significant generator outages.
"We plan throughout the year to make sure we have enough resources to serve load at the hottest time of the year," said PJM President and CEO, Manu Asthana. "But we are concerned that new generation is not coming online fast enough to replace retiring resources, and that subsequent years may be more challenging."
The loss of generation resources is outpacing the addition of replacement resources during accelerating growth in consumers' demand for electricity throughout North America.
PJM has fewer generation resources for use in summer 2024 as compared to 2023. Approximately 182,500 MW of installed generating capacity is available to meet customer needs in 2024 than about 186,500 MW of installed capacity in summer 2023.
PJM has anticipated higher peak demand for electricity at approximately 151,000 MW in summer 2024 as compared with the summer peak load of 147,000 MW in 2023. The increased peak load forecast along with reduced generating capacity reduces reserve margins for extreme weather scenarios.
Scenarios including such higher level of demand, combined with low solar and wind output and/or high generator outages, is expected to further reduce reserve margins.
PJM will also have to implement additional procedures to manage emergencies, including demand response, calls for conservation, limits on electricity exports, or even temporary service interruptions.
The National Weather Service expects above-average temperatures in summer 2024 for the entire PJM footprint, as well as wetter conditions than normal. However, PJM and other members have to be prepared for more extreme weather scenarios.
"We will continue to work with our utility partners and stakeholders to refine our planning, analysis and communications of the risks presented by any challenging weather patterns this summer,” said Aftab Khan, Executive Vice President-Operations, Planning and Security.
PJM performs load forecasting for both short and long-term periods to help acquire an adequate supply of power for reliable service at the most reasonable cost. A dedicated team of operators uses sophisticated technology to balance supply and demand as well as directs the power grid from PJM's control rooms throughout the day.
They not only prepare multiple potential scenarios to be impacted by weather, emergency conditions or equipment failure but also adjust resource output with changes in demand and ensure transmission lines or facilities are not overloaded. The team also watches for unusual conditions and protects the electricity supply from them.
