I've changed my mind on the complexity of the distribution business. Having spent my early career in generation, I expected that my latest assignment to power delivery would be a walk in the park. Instead, I find myself zooming down a superhighway. I have discovered that the distribution business is every bit or even more challenging than generation. I am immersed in incredibly exciting times. I'd even go so far as to say I'm having fun!

We've all heard rumors that competition would be the death of distribution planning. I'm here to tell you that not only is planning not dead, it is more complex and more crucial to the running of our business than ever. In competitive business environments, we need more planning, not less.

PG&E has around 5 million existing customers with 80,000 new customers being added each year, and their needs vary. In one service territory, a customer relocated from San Francisco to Mendocino County. This customer places bond trades all over the world via the Internet and phone lines. This customer expects the same level of service provided in the city where he used to execute his transactions.

At the same time, our agricultural products are the state's largest exporters and this business is price driven. Our growers tell us, “We can live with outages but bring our prices down.” Two different customers, two different expectations.

Putting the Infrastructure in Place

We need new tools if we are to meet customer needs. In fact, we are now moving from deterministic to probabilistic models that give us more firepower to understand and manage risks. Distribution planners no longer work within 18- to 24-month time frames. Today, we are looking three to five years into the future to address various uncertainties associated with siting and permitting. We are learning to embrace scenario planning. For instance, on one job site a dead red-legged frog was found, and the ensuing environmental studies delayed an ongoing distribution project an additional year.

Like many utilities here in North America, a large portion of our infrastructure was put in just after World War II. Even though our equipment is aging, we find that age is not the big issue. We are hurting from lack of construction records, lack of operational data and incomplete outage records. In the past, planning was all about accommodating growth. Today, our planners are balancing growth with infrastructure replacement. With wise investment in refurbishment, we can extend the life of our assets. We now treat our wooden poles on 10-year cycles, extending the average life of our poles from 40 to 60 years. We are also performing fluid injection to extend the life of underground primary cables at a fraction of the annualized cost of cable replacement.

Next Steps

We will continue to use existing forecasting tools while we invest in reliability improvements. Like most utilities, we allocate a portion of our dollars to upgrade our worst performing circuits. But we must also plan for the future. At PG&E, we have brought transmission planning and distribution planning into one organization, which enables us to do a better job of optimizing our capacity investment as we look 5 to 10 years into the future.

But most importantly, we need better asset management plans. We must know the history of our equipment if we are to accurately predict the reliability of the system over time.

Utilities are now building out their asset management database and embracing sophisticated models that help convert data into better investment decisions.

We Need New Job Descriptions

Let me close by saying that distribution planning is not dead. But the traditional role of the distribution planner is on our endangered species list. As we plan to meet our short- and long-term goals, we must recruit and train personnel with a blend of business and technical skills. They must be able to meet load growth with a smorgasbord approach. We need risk analysis tools to help us decide whether to refurbish the old or build the new. We need individuals who can determine the value demand side management and load shifting might provide. We need risk takers who can bend but not break. We need visionaries who understand what our business will look like and who will work to make that vision a reality.

Planners will no longer be located in dusty back rooms running load flow after load flow after load flow. Those who plan our future are destined to become the heartbeat of an organization committed to meeting the evolving needs of its customers.

Shan Bhattacharya is vice president of asset management at Pacific Gas and Electric Co. Prior to his current position, Bhattacharya split his 20-year tenure between PG&E's generation (nuclear and hydro) and electric T&D business. He joined PG&E following a 12-year career with Bechtel Power Corp. sxb4@pge.com

Editor's Note: Mr. Bhattacharya recently kicked off a working group at the IEEE PES General Meeting in San Francisco that is addressing the future of distribution planning. To join in the debate and be a part of the process, contact Lee Willis at lee.willis@kema.us or Greg Welch at gvwelch@bellsouth.net.