Laying an electricity transmission line from Tajikistan to Iran via Afghanistan will be a risky venture, but NBCentralAsia experts say it will be worth the effort, giving the Tajiks an energy export route that they cannot afford to pass up.

Energy officials from Tajikistan, Iran and Afghanistan have started work on a feasibility study for a high-voltage power line from Rogun on Tajikistan’s Vakhsh river to Mashhad in northwest Iran, according to reports from Tajik news agencies on March 9. The proposed route will take electricity from hydroelectric plants at Rogun and Sangtuda to Iran. The longest section – some 1100 km will cross northern Afghanistan via Mazar-i-Sharif and Herat.

Experts say the project faces two financial risks – technical problems with laying the power line in Afghanistan, and a potential crisis in Iranian-United States relations, which could mean construction grinds to a halt.

However, most of the analysts to whom NBCentralAsia talked say that despite these risks, the electricity line is will not only be profitable for Tajikistan, but will prove essential in the long-term.

“There are risks, but we have to build the line, otherwise we won’t have any need for the hydroelectric power stations we are building,” said an energy expert based in Dushanbe.

An official with the ministry for energy and industry agreed, saying that by the time the line is up and running - about 10 years from now - Tajikistan will be in a position to export substantial amounts of electricity, and a properly designed power line will make it a player on the regional energy market.

“Tajikistan has to build a network of power lines around its borders so that whenever promising projects emerge, we simply connect them up to our grid without spending a lot of money laying new cable and building substations,” said the official.

The Afghan-Iran power line will use power generated by major new hydroelectric plants at Sangtuda and Rogun, which are due to be completed and connected to the national grid by 2007 and 2011, respectively. Both plants sit on the river Vakhsh, and a “cascade” of smaller power stations on the same river could also feed into the power line.

Economist Hojimuhammad Umarov says that Tajikistan stands to gain a great deal since world market prices for electricity are always far higher than the domestic tariff.

He believes the risks of laying a cable across Afghanistan are actually smaller than one might think, given that the route goes through the relatively stable north of the country.

Analysts say demand for power is expected to grow in Afghanistan as well as Iran.