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Everything Must Change

Whenever I think I'm beginning to see the light, a new piece of information comes along that forces me to rethink assumptions I didn't know I made. Then, after I've noodled over it for awhile, pieces of the puzzle realign, and I begin to see the picture in a whole new light.

Here is the situation I'm grappling with now. My buddy Gene Wolf and I did the research for five supplements on the intelligent grid over a two-year span. We looked at all aspects of this emerging ability to monitor and control power-delivery components and systems from the generator to the consumer. What a learning experience! This research led to our next supplement, “Connecting Renewables to the Grid.” Dishearteningly, we came to realize that under the best of circumstances and in the best of locations, wind and solar are available only 35% and 20% of the time, respectively (compared to nuclear with availabilities in the high 80s).

As Gene and I talked with wind-integration experts in Europe and North America, we came to the conclusion that we must have storage — bulk, local and dynamic — if we are to accommodate the “20% renewables by 2030” targets that so many states are mandating. Otherwise, this 20% number reflects only the capacity of solar and capacity of the wind farms and nowhere near the amount of green energy that is actually consumed. As an industry, we would then be reduced to delivering sham statistics to a duped public who were led to believe they were paying for the real deal.

Germany and Spain are having quite a time digesting high doses of renewables. Even though utilities are mandated to accept wind and solar first, this is not always possible. Times of greatest wind speeds often occur in the night and thus coincide with times of lowest need.

As we investigated the details behind wind-based events in North America and Europe that led to involuntary load shedding and blackouts, we realized our system needs to store energy if we are to properly operate the grid in the era of green. That set us off on our most recent quest to investigate the status of energy storage, which we now present in the form of this supplement. We've shown the maturity of each storage technology we found and attempted to match the technology to the need.

But in following this quest, I found myself forced to rethink an assumption I had not known I made: the assumption that the building blocks of electric energy are generation, delivery and consumption. I discovered these building blocks are no longer adequate. Let's play it forward for a minute and see what makes up the new energy world.

  • The new consumer buys and sells electricity based on dynamic pricing and even sells negawatts when the price is right.

  • The new independent system operator creates a market for capacity and for negawatts to go with existing markets for megawatts, sending out pricing signals that encourage appropriate long-term and short-term investments by generators, energy-delivery companies and customers.

  • The new energy retail company buys electrons from and sells electrons to clients based on dynamic pricing.

  • The new aggregator shifts load away from peak and sells this valuable packaged commodity on the open market in megawatt bundles.

  • The new societal compact arrives. Want renewables? Then provide credits to generators. Want less carbon? Then apply taxes to carbon generators.

In this world of new players, everything changes.

Our fossil fuels are finite. We know that. We absolutely must consume less and, at the same time, consume more of what is renewable. We need new lines to tie new sources and new sinks. We need it all. But we need solutions in doses that we as a nation and we as a global economy can absorb.

I see an industry crying for common sense and a middle way. Politically, we can't afford to be red or blue. Environmentally, we can't afford to be green or brown. We need to work together for a common energy future.

Let's not respond to today's economic hard times by wildly chasing Obama stimulus money. Yes, we need to invest in our delivery infrastructure, and yes, stimulus money will help, but let's make sure we invest in ways that make sense and enhance our flexibility going forward as we build out our increasingly intelligent grid.

Let's get change rolling in a positive direction by challenging assumptions we didn't know we made. Then, let's invest in ways to cost-effectively deliver power to and accept power from our customers. This requires we balance the need for a healthy environment with the need for a healthy economy.

Editors' note: We would like to thank Ice. Inc. for sponsoring the research for this supplement, as they seek to enhance the dialog in addressing all aspects of our energy future.

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© 2012 Penton Media Inc.


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