Change in the Wind? What Does a Second Trump Administration Mean for Offshore Wind
Back in 2006, when he was still just an ex game show host who occasionally tweeted about politics, President-Elect Donald Trump had a now-legendary spat with a Scottish offshore wind farm under development by Vattenfall off the coast of the Trump’s Aberdeenshire golf course.
The former and incoming president was not successful in his fight to stop the 11-turbine European Offshore Wind Deployment Centre, and it began generating power for National Grid in 2018, during his first term.
Trump called the wind farm “monstrous” and “a grotesque blot,” arguing that it would ruin the view from his golf course. In the end, his legal challenges were rejected and he was ordered to pay the Scottish government’s legal bills.
At a rally in May, Trump called offshore wind power “horrible,” and “the most expensive energy there is.” It is probably safe to say that he has not changed his mind about offshore wind, but presidents are only one factor in what sorts of energy projects move forward.
First Offshore Wind Leases
Well before Trump, offshore wind energy had its share of false starts in the U.S. By 2015, there were already more than 3200 wind turbines in operation in Europe, with countries like the U.K., Germany, Belgium and Denmark leading the way. The EU states plan to have an installed capacity of 19.6 GW of offshore wind by 2030.
In its 14th Five-Year Plan, which runs through 2025, China called for 570 GW of new renewable energy projects with an emphasis on offshore wind. The country installed 6.3 GW of offshore wind in 2023.
2023 was the second-best year ever for the global offshore wind industry, with a total of 75 GW of global offshore wind capacity was in operation by the end of 2023, according to a report by the Global Wind Energy Council.
The first commercial-scale offshore wind project in the U.S., Block Island Wind Farm off the coast of Rhode Island, did not start construction until 2015. The 30 MW project hit many snags, with regulators initially saying and courts upholding that the cost of the electricity was too much for ratepayers.
The Vinyard Wind 1 project began delivering power off the coast of Nantucket, Massachusetts in January 2024. The project will eventually generate more than 800 MW in nameplate capacity. Vinyard 1 got its approval under the Biden administration, which had set a goal of generating 30 GW from offshore wind by 2030.
Dominion Energy has installed the foundations and offshore substation foundations for the 2.6 GW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project off Virginia Beach.
There were no commercial scale offshore wind projects with approved permits when President Joe Biden took office, but the Biden Department of Energy approved 10 large offshore wind farms with a capacity of 15 GW, according to the Department of the Interior.
The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management also held four offshore wind lease auctions, including the first ever off the Pacific and Gulf Coasts.
Trump and Offshore Wind
While offshore wind projects saw some strides under Biden, Trump’s campaign trail comments show his attitude about wind turbines has not changed since his first term.
“We are going to make sure that that ends on day one,” Trump said at a May rally in New Jersey. “I’m going to write it out in an executive order. It’s going to end on day one.”
Trump’s first term saw a flurry of executive orders within its first month, not all of which were able to go into effect due to legal challenges. However, there are projects in the pipeline that already have their approvals. It is the projects without permits that may be in question.
Following Trump’s win in November, TotalEnergies, a French oil and gas company, said it would put its planned offshore wind project off the coast of New Jersey on pause, according to Bloomberg. The 3000 MW project, named Attentive Energy, was not yet permitted and would have faced years of federal government reviews before it could move forward.
Officials with RWE and Siemens Energy were quoted by Reuters as saying Trump’s election could make investment in offshore wind riskier.
Trump’s Energy Picks
In his first term, Trump’s administration was accused of dragging their feet on project approvals for offshore wind. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) said in September 2020 that the Vineyard Wind permits were “slow-walked” by the Trump’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, an arm of the Interior Department.
Trump nominated North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum to be the next Interior secretary. In his previous comments, Burgum says the U.S. needs an “all of the above” approach to energy, and as governor called for achieving carbon neutrality by 2030.
Burgum will also lead a newly formed National Energy Council, which is tasked with carrying out his energy policy priorities. When Trump discusses energy policy, he mostly talks about oil and gas production, with frequent mentions of drilling and “unleashing” U.S. energy production.
Trump said in a statement that this council will consist of representatives of all federal agencies and departments concerned with the production, permitting, generation, regulation, distribution and transport of all forms of energy. Goals of the council will be “cutting red tape,” encouraging private sector investment in the energy sector and focusing on innovation, Trump wrote.
Colorado-based CEO Chris Wright, Trump’s pick to lead the DOE, leads of the world’s largest fracking operations, Liberty Oilfield Services, and is a frequent Republican donor. Wright has said at energy conferences that there is no energy transition or climate change crisis.
Former U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.), Trump’s pick for EPA administrator, opposes the Paris Agreement, and as a candidate for N.Y. governor, he pledged to overturn a ban on hydraulic fracturing. Zeldin also voted against Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which invested billions into energy transition infrastructure and research.
The offshore wind industry in the U.S. may finally have been finding its footing during Biden’s tenure, although nagging inflation and supply chain woes caused problems before the outcome of the election was certain.
Several offshore wind projects hit snags in September 2024, for example, when GE Vernova, the largest wind turbine maker in the U.S., scaled back its offshore wind equipment business.
The industry also faces headwinds that have little to do with who sits in the Oval Office. The technology remains costly — taking about $4000 per kilowatt-hour, compared with about $1200/kWh for a combined cycle natural gas-fired plant — and is often reliant on government supports. However, these costs are lowering as the industry matures.
The industry will require a half a million new wind power technicians by 2028 if global wind energy earmarks are to be met, according to a joint report by the Global Wind Energy Council and the Global Wind Organisation.
