NYISO Warns of Potential Summer Power Shortages Despite Adequate Supplies Under Normal Conditions

The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) has reported adequate electricity supplies to meet expected summer demand under baseline conditions, but is concerned about reliability.

Some 40,733 MW of power resources will be available to meet expected peak demand conditions of 33,301 MW in 2024 as compared to summer peak demand of 30,206 MW in 2023.

Four generating units with a total capacity of 59 MWs have been deactivated and 12 generating units, all of which are clean energy resources, with a capacity of 452 MWs have been added to the grid since summer 2023.

NYISO’s Comprehensive Reliability Plan examined reliability of the grid through 2032 and found that reliability margins will continue to diminish across the state.

“Reliability margins have declined by more than 1,000 megawatts in just the last two years,” said Emilie Nelson, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the New York Independent System Operator. “As demand is forecasted to rise in the coming years, this trend will continue to pose a challenge to system reliability.”

The reliability margin under baseline conditions is 752 MW considering factors like unavailable generation and operating reserve requirements. Reliability margins are predicted to be short under extreme weather conditions.

If the state experiences a heatwave with an average daily temperature of 95 degrees for 3 or more days, the capacity margin is forecasted to be -1,419 MW, which will further decline to -3,093 MW under an extreme heatwave with an average daily temperature of 98 degrees. NYISO operators will dispatch up to 3,275 MW through emergency operating procedures to maintain reliability under such conditions.