NERC: Despite Improvements, North America is Still Vulnerable to Electricity Shortfalls
Power plant retirements and loads growing faster than resources can catch up are two reasons why the power grid’s reliability continues to be at risk, particularly during extreme weather conditions, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.
In its most recent winter reliability assessment, NERC found no areas to be at a high risk of electricity shortfalls, however, and all areas can be expected to have enough resources to make it through the winter under normally forecast peak load conditions.
Improvements in regulation, industry practices and infrastructure made since Winter Storms Uri and Elliot have improved the picture for the power grid, said Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of Reliability Assessments.
“However, we cannot ignore ongoing concerns around natural gas supply and NERC encourages entities across the gas-electric value chain to take the actions necessary to prepare for extreme cold, to keep gas flowing, and to keep the lights and furnaces on,” Olson said in a press release from NERC.
Meanwhile the winter demand for electricity is growing thanks to the trend of swapping out natural gas for heating and cooking in appliances such as furnaces and ranges. The Mid-Atlantic region in particular has seen high load growth combined with limited regional natural gas pipeline capacity, which could be a combination that puts reliability at risk if there is a particularly severely cold winter.
The growing reliance upon natural gas carries risks in the wintertime, as Winter Storm Uri demonstrated in Texas in 2021, causing thermal power plants to fail, freezing natural gas distribution and triggering a spike in demand for electricity.
NERC also named new load from data centers coming online and more adoption of electric vehicles as drivers behind an increased demand for electricity.
“Winter brings unique challenges for the electric industry, and this year, growing demand and increased reliance on natural gas add new layers of risk.” said John Moura, NERC’s director of Reliability Assessments and Performance Analysis. “Our assessment highlights concern around the challenges in sudden and prolonged demand spikes, and the need to manage those by improving short-term forecasts to more effectively posture both electric and natural gas systems.”
NERC encouraged its regional entities to focus on cold weather preparedness, load forecasting, securing the fuel supply and helpful policy and regulations.
The New York Independent System Operator agreed that disruptions in fuel supplies could result in operational challenges given system reliance on firm fuel generation during extreme cold weather events.
“The findings of our annual assessment show adequate resources to serve electric demand this winter,” said Aaron Markham, Vice President of Operations for the NYISO. “However, disruptions in fuel supplies to generators could result in operational challenges, especially during extreme winter weather conditions.”
In response to NERC’s reliability assessment, the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association agreed in a press release that energy demand is growing and supply is not keeping up, however the association put some of the blame on energy policies and regulations.
“Demand for electricity is skyrocketing across America and supply is not keeping pace. And flawed public policies that focus on shutting down always available power generation are compounding this problem,” Matheson said. “This growing threat to reliable electricity jeopardizes the health of local communities and undermines the American economy. This report clearly highlights the need to swiftly implement a pro-energy policy agenda with a focus on affordability and reliability for American families and businesses. Smart energy policies that keep the lights on are more important than ever.”
