A new study from Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability finds that the U.S. power system has significant untapped potential to integrate new large electricity loads while minimizing the need for costly infrastructure upgrades. The study highlights how load flexibility — temporary reductions in electricity consumption during peak demand — could enable economic growth while maintaining grid reliability and affordability.
The research provides a first-order estimate of how much new flexible load could be added across the 22 largest balancing authorities, which collectively oversee 95 percent of the U.S. power system. The findings suggest that modest, short-duration curtailments could allow for substantial load increases without overwhelming existing grid capacity.
Key takeaways from the study include:
-
Load flexibility as a strategic tool: The ability of customers to temporarily adjust electricity consumption — through onsite generation, shifting operations, or other measures — could serve as a cost-effective alternative to traditional grid expansion.
-
Potential for 100 gigawatts of additional load: The study introduces the concept of "curtailment-enabled headroom," estimating that balancing authorities could integrate up to 100 gigawatts of new large loads with minimal impact. This assumes that these loads would be curtailed an average of 0.5 percent of their maximum uptime annually — approximately two hours per year — helping to manage peak demand periods.
-
Alignment with existing demand response programs: The estimated curtailment levels are similar to current demand response initiatives, which encourage industrial and commercial users to adjust electricity usage to support grid stability, defer upgrades, and integrate renewable energy.
“Our study demonstrates that the existing U.S. power system — designed to manage extreme peak demand fluctuations — could accommodate significant load additions with modest flexibility measures,” said lead author Tyler Norris, a Ph.D. student at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment. “These findings suggest that load flexibility could be a valuable near-term strategy for regulators and market participants to integrate new loads while optimizing investments in the electric power system.”
The study was conducted by Norris; Tim Profeta, senior fellow at the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability and associate professor of the practice at the Sanford School of Public Policy; Dalia Patiño-Echeverri, associate professor at the Nicholas School of the Environment; and Adam Cowie-Haskell, a graduate student at the Nicholas School.
