The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) has released its 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA), which identified a violation of reliability criteria in New York City in 2033 and highlighted increasing risks to electric system reliability statewide.
The RNA, issued biennially, examined the future reliability of the New York electric grid considering forecasts of power demand, planned upgrades to the transmission system, public policy and changes to the generation mix over a ten-year period.
The RNA noted several factors contributing to projected increases in peak demand over the study horizon, including electrification of the transportation and building sectors and large, energy-intensive commercial projects including data centers and chip fabrication.
Additionally, state legislation enacted in 2023 requires the New York Power Authority (NYPA) to deactivate its small natural gas plants located in New York City and Long Island. The retirements are expected to result in a loss of 517 MW. The new law allows NYPA to confer with the NYISO to determine the role of these plants for electric system reliability.
According to the findings of the RNA, the identified New York City reliability requirement is 17 MW in summer 2033 and will rise to 97 MW in summer 2034.
The potential risks and resource requirements identified in the RNA are predicted to be taken care by new capacity resources coming into service, construction of additional transmission facilities, increased energy efficiency, integration of distributed energy resources and/or growth in demand response participation.
The plan also highlighted the importance of the scheduled completion of planned transmission projects, primarily the Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) project, to maintain system reliability. Reliability margins within New York City are anticipated to be scarce beginning in 2026, without the CHPE project operational by May 2026 or other offsetting solutions.
The RNA found that the forecasted transition from a summer-peaking system to a winter-peaking system also creates challenges to grid reliability. The shift, due to the electrification of the building and transportation sectors, is expected to accelerate over the next ten years.
Increased winter demand also leads to new reliability concerns, particularly around fuel availability for gas-fired generators. On the coldest days, natural gas distribution companies prioritize residential heating and limit the fuel available to generators without firm contracts. These coldest days also correspond to peak winter demand periods when the gas fleet is required most.
